NFLSun 3:25 PM CTAllegiant Stadium

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

TV · Fox

Sun 3:25 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

LV +4.5

51%

LAR 26.31–22.30 LV

Data-Driven Pick · P. Nacua Under 94.5 rec yds

-110

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · L2

135 PF · 138 PA

26.31

Projected

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · L3 · computer pick

162 PF · 162 PA

22.30

LAR 62%LV 38%

Projected LAR 26.31–22.30 LV

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LAR -3.0

LAR -4.5

Total

48.8

48.5

Gap: +1.5 margin, +0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAR vs LV

The model

How this number was built

LAR 26.31–22.30 LV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LV -2.3 vs LAR +3.0 · pred margin -4.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) LV off -0.04, def stop -0.02 · LAR off +0.04, def stop +0.03 · model LV 23.3–26.4 LAR
Home field
+2.4 pts to LV
Record
LV 3-3 · LAR 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LAR -4.5 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Matthew Stafford
Pass 164/249, 1794 YDS, 11 TD, 6 INT
Kyren Williams
Rush 80 CAR, 393 YDS, 4 TD
Puka Nacua
Rec 37 REC, 417 YDS, 1 TD

Kirk Cousins
Pass 135/213, 1582 YDS, 14 TD, 5 INT
Ashton Jeanty
Rush 98 CAR, 313 YDS, 1 TD
Brock Bowers
Rec 28 REC, 382 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAR	LV
Points Per Game	22.5	27.0
Total Yards	413.8	350.8
Yards Passing	301.2	271.7
Yards Rushing	112.7	79.2
Points Allowed Per Game	23.0	27.0
Yards Allowed	300.8	387.8
Pass Yards Allowed	173.8	253.5
Rush Yards Allowed	127.0	134.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

P. Nacua Under 94.5 rec yds

-11072%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

M. Stafford anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
64%
P. Nacua anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
64%
K. Williams anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
64%
P. Nacua Under 7.5 rec
Receptions · LAR
-110
64%
LV anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
61%
LAR anytime TD
Anytime TD · LAR
-110
61%
B. Bowers Under 69.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · LV
-110
60%
K. Cousins anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
58%
B. Bowers anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
58%
A. Jeanty anytime TD
Anytime TD · LV
-110
58%
K. Williams Over 24.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · LAR
-110
57%

Rams vs Raiders prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LV +4.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Rams 26.3, Raiders 22.3. Model win probability: Raiders 38%, Rams 62%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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