NFLSun 3:25 PM CTFord Field

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

TV · Fox

Sun 3:25 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 53.5

52%

GB 25.06–28.24 DET

Data-Driven Pick · A. St. Brown Under 78.5 rec yds

-110

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · W3

127 PF · 125 PA

25.06

Projected

Detroit Lions

3-2 · W1

164 PF · 148 PA

28.24

GB 41%DET 59%

Projected GB 25.06–28.24 DET

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DET -3.6

DET -3.0

Total

52.9

53.5

Gap: +0.6 margin, -0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GB vs DET

The model

How this number was built

GB 25.06–28.24 DET · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DET +2.2 vs GB +1.3 · pred margin +3.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) DET off +0.09, def stop -0.06 · GB off +0.01, def stop +0.01 · rest +7d · model DET 27.7–23.6 GB
Home field
+2.4 pts to DET
Record
DET 3-2 · GB 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DET -3 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jordan Love
Pass 135/226, 1684 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT
MarShawn Lloyd
Rush 48 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
Christian Watson
Rec 29 REC, 538 YDS, 6 TD

Jared Goff
Pass 128/191, 1485 YDS, 12 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs
Rush 105 CAR, 504 YDS, 7 TD
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Rec 37 REC, 372 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GB	DET
Points Per Game	21.2	32.8
Total Yards	340.5	411.2
Yards Passing	280.7	297.0
Yards Rushing	59.8	114.2
Points Allowed Per Game	20.8	29.6
Yards Allowed	323.5	428.4
Pass Yards Allowed	209.2	321.4
Rush Yards Allowed	114.3	107.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

A. St. Brown Under 78.5 rec yds

-11065%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

J. Goff anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
66%
A. St. Brown anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
66%
J. Gibbs anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
66%
DET anytime TD
Anytime TD · DET
-110
64%
GB anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
64%
A. St. Brown Under 7.5 rec
Receptions · DET
-110
63%
C. Watson Under 75.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · GB
-110
63%
J. Gibbs Under 92.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · DET
-110
62%
J. Love anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
62%
C. Watson anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
62%
M. Lloyd anytime TD
Anytime TD · GB
-110
62%

Packers vs Lions prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 53.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Packers 25.1, Lions 28.2. Model win probability: Lions 59%, Packers 41%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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