NFLSun 3:05 PM CTState Farm Stadium

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

TV · CBS

Sun 3:05 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

51%

DEN 24.01–19.65 ARI

Denver Broncos

4-2 · W2

114 PF · 125 PA

24.01

Projected

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · W1

126 PF · 178 PA

19.65

DEN 63%ARI 37%

Projected DEN 24.01–19.65 ARI

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DEN -4.1

DEN -4.5

Total

44.0

43.5

Gap: +0.4 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DEN vs ARI

The model

How this number was built

DEN 24.01–19.65 ARI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ARI -4.9 vs DEN +1.3 · pred margin -4.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) ARI off -0.02, def stop -0.05 · DEN off -0.02, def stop +0.05 · rest -3d · model ARI 20.2–25.0 DEN
Home field
+2.4 pts to ARI
Record
ARI 2-4 · DEN 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DEN -4.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Bo Nix
Pass 114/189, 1049 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT
J.K. Dobbins
Rush 81 CAR, 270 YDS, 2 TD
Jaylen Waddle
Rec 22 REC, 228 YDS, 1 TD

Jacoby Brissett
Pass 156/234, 1328 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT
Jeremiyah Love
Rush 67 CAR, 245 YDS, 1 TD
Trey McBride
Rec 49 REC, 361 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DEN	ARI
Points Per Game	19.0	21.0
Total Yards	259.0	318.8
Yards Passing	174.8	222.5
Yards Rushing	84.2	96.3
Points Allowed Per Game	20.8	29.7
Yards Allowed	369.8	368.2
Pass Yards Allowed	230.0	247.3
Rush Yards Allowed	139.8	120.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J.K. Dobbins anytime TD
Anytime TD · DEN
-110
60%
J. Waddle anytime TD
Anytime TD · DEN
-110
60%
B. Nix anytime TD
Anytime TD · DEN
-110
60%
J. Brissett anytime TD
Anytime TD · ARI
-110
53%
T. McBride anytime TD
Anytime TD · ARI
-110
53%
J. Love anytime TD
Anytime TD · ARI
-110
53%

Broncos vs Cardinals prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Broncos 24.0, Cardinals 19.6. Model win probability: Cardinals 37%, Broncos 63%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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