NFLSun 12:00 PM CTMercedes-Benz Stadium

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

TV · Fox

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 50.5

52%

SF 27.15–23.07 ATL

Data-Driven Pick · B. Purdy Over 4.5 car

-110

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · W6

177 PF · 110 PA

27.15

Projected

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · L2

142 PF · 153 PA

23.07

SF 62%ATL 38%

Projected SF 27.15–23.07 ATL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SF -6.3

SF -3.0

Total

49.6

50.5

Gap: -3.3 margin, -0.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SF vs ATL

The model

How this number was built

SF 27.15–23.07 ATL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ATL -3.3 vs SF +6.5 · pred margin -4.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) ATL off -0.03, def stop +0.01 · SF off +0.13, def stop +0.01 · rest +1d · model ATL 21.9–25.8 SF
Home field
+2.4 pts to ATL
Record
ATL 2-4 · SF 6-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SF -3 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Brock Purdy
Pass 119/171, 1460 YDS, 14 TD, 2 INT
Christian McCaffrey
Rush 77 CAR, 350 YDS, 7 TD
Mike Evans
Rec 27 REC, 420 YDS, 3 TD

Michael Penix Jr.
Pass 71/110, 944 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Bijan Robinson
Rush 111 CAR, 641 YDS, 4 TD
Drake London
Rec 31 REC, 550 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SF	ATL
Points Per Game	29.5	23.7
Total Yards	371.5	360.5
Yards Passing	243.3	211.0
Yards Rushing	128.2	149.5
Points Allowed Per Game	18.3	25.5
Yards Allowed	315.8	351.8
Pass Yards Allowed	225.7	268.7
Rush Yards Allowed	90.2	83.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

B. Purdy Over 4.5 car

-11063%

Carries · DraftKings

C. McCaffrey anytime TD
Anytime TD · SF
-110
65%
B. Purdy anytime TD
Anytime TD · SF
-110
65%
D. London Under 76.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · ATL
-110
63%
ATL anytime TD
Anytime TD · ATL
-110
62%
SF anytime TD
Anytime TD · SF
-110
62%
M. Penix Jr. Over 1.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · ATL
-110
60%
M. Penix Jr. anytime TD
Anytime TD · ATL
-110
59%
D. London anytime TD
Anytime TD · ATL
-110
59%
B. Robinson anytime TD
Anytime TD · ATL
-110
59%
B. Purdy Over 18.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · SF
-110
59%
B. Robinson Under 83.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · ATL
-110
58%

49ers vs Falcons prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 50.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects 49ers 27.1, Falcons 23.1. Model win probability: Falcons 38%, 49ers 62%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day