NFLSun 12:00 PM CTReliant Stadium

New York Giants at Houston Texans

TV · Fox

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NYG +10

54%

NYG 16.45–26.30 HOU

New York Giants

3-2-1 · L1 · computer pick

136 PF · 140 PA

16.45

Projected

Houston Texans

2-4 · W2

144 PF · 143 PA

26.30

NYG 23%HOU 77%

Projected NYG 16.45–26.30 HOU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

HOU -9.5

HOU -10.0

Total

43.3

42.5

Gap: -0.5 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NYG vs HOU

The model

How this number was built

NYG 16.45–26.30 HOU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
HOU +2.7 vs NYG -6.0 · pred margin +9.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) HOU off +0.01, def stop +0.05 · NYG off -0.05, def stop -0.01 · model HOU 25.5–19.7 NYG
Home field
+2.4 pts to HOU
Record
HOU 2-4 · NYG 3-2-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward HOU -10 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jameis Winston
Pass 90/158, 957 YDS, 7 TD, 5 INT
Cam Skattebo
Rush 81 CAR, 294 YDS, 1 TD
Malik Nabers
Rec 41 REC, 494 YDS, 2 TD

C.J. Stroud
Pass 143/219, 1714 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT
Woody Marks
Rush 58 CAR, 205 YDS, 2 TD
Jaylin Noel
Rec 17 REC, 334 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NYG	HOU
Points Per Game	22.7	24.0
Total Yards	346.5	370.5
Yards Passing	241.7	285.7
Yards Rushing	104.8	84.8
Points Allowed Per Game	23.3	23.8
Yards Allowed	334.2	347.5
Pass Yards Allowed	198.7	264.5
Rush Yards Allowed	135.5	83.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

W. Marks anytime TD
Anytime TD · HOU
-110
64%
M. Nabers no TD
Anytime TD · NYG
-110
53%

Giants vs Texans prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NYG +10, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Giants 16.4, Texans 26.3. Model win probability: Texans 77%, Giants 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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