NFLSun 12:00 PM CTMetLife Stadium

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 38.5

54%

MIA 17.20–21.77 NYJ

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · L5

70 PF · 132 PA

17.20

Projected

New York Jets

2-4 · L1

112 PF · 122 PA

21.77

MIA 37%NYJ 63%

Projected MIA 17.20–21.77 NYJ

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NYJ -4.7

NYJ -4.5

Total

40.0

38.5

Gap: +0.2 margin, +1.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MIA vs NYJ

The model

How this number was built

MIA 17.20–21.77 NYJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NYJ -4.2 vs MIA -7.7 · pred margin +4.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) NYJ off -0.07, def stop +0.00 · MIA off -0.05, def stop -0.07 · rest -7d · model NYJ 22.7–20.8 MIA
Home field
+2.4 pts to NYJ
Record
NYJ 2-4 · MIA 0-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NYJ -4.5 / total 38.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Malik Willis
Pass 73/130, 849 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
Ollie Gordon II
Rush 47 CAR, 236 YDS, 3 TD
Malik Washington
Rec 23 REC, 262 YDS

Geno Smith
Pass 122/177, 1336 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT
Braelon Allen
Rush 74 CAR, 314 YDS, 2 TD
Garrett Wilson
Rec 35 REC, 418 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIA	NYJ
Points Per Game	14.0	18.7
Total Yards	296.4	317.2
Yards Passing	169.8	222.7
Yards Rushing	126.6	94.5
Points Allowed Per Game	26.4	20.3
Yards Allowed	336.6	325.0
Pass Yards Allowed	226.0	202.0
Rush Yards Allowed	110.6	123.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Dolphins vs Jets prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 38.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Dolphins 17.2, Jets 21.8. Model win probability: Jets 63%, Dolphins 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day