NFLSun 12:00 PM CTU.S. Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 41.5

53%

IND 17.82–23.96 MIN

Data-Driven Pick · D. Jones Over 201.5 pass yds

-110

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · L2

144 PF · 164 PA

17.82

Projected

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · W5

109 PF · 64 PA

23.96

IND 33%MIN 67%

Projected IND 17.82–23.96 MIN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MIN -5.4

MIN -6.5

Total

42.4

41.5

Gap: -1.1 margin, +0.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: IND vs MIN

The model

How this number was built

IND 17.82–23.96 MIN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MIN +1.6 vs IND -0.9 · pred margin +6.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) MIN off -0.09, def stop +0.14 · IND off -0.02, def stop -0.02 · rest +7d · model MIN 25.5–19.1 IND
Home field
+2.4 pts to MIN
Record
MIN 5-0 · IND 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward MIN -6.5 / total 41.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Daniel Jones
Pass 130/218, 1290 YDS, 4 TD, 6 INT
Jonathan Taylor
Rush 122 CAR, 492 YDS, 7 TD
Josh Downs
Rec 24 REC, 289 YDS

Kyler Murray
Pass 69/101, 662 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
Aaron Jones Sr.
Rush 97 CAR, 410 YDS, 2 TD
Justin Jefferson
Rec 19 REC, 258 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IND	MIN
Points Per Game	24.0	21.8
Total Yards	326.5	303.6
Yards Passing	215.0	187.6
Yards Rushing	111.5	116.0
Points Allowed Per Game	27.3	12.8
Yards Allowed	362.8	282.0
Pass Yards Allowed	240.3	195.4
Rush Yards Allowed	122.5	86.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. Jones Over 201.5 pass yds

-11064%

Passing yards · DraftKings

J. Jefferson Under 74.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · MIN
-110
61%
A. Jones Sr. anytime TD
Anytime TD · MIN
-110
60%
K. Murray anytime TD
Anytime TD · MIN
-110
60%
J. Jefferson anytime TD
Anytime TD · MIN
-110
60%
J. Taylor Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · IND
-110
57%
J. Taylor Over 16.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · IND
-110
57%
IND anytime TD
Anytime TD · IND
-110
55%
MIN anytime TD
Anytime TD · MIN
-110
55%
J. Jefferson Under 5.5 rec
Receptions · MIN
-110
55%
K. Murray Over 204.5 pass yds
Passing yards · MIN
-110
54%
J. Taylor Under 18.5 car
Carries · IND
-110
54%

Colts vs Vikings prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 41.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Colts 17.8, Vikings 24.0. Model win probability: Vikings 67%, Colts 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day