NFLSun 12:00 PM CTNissan Stadium

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 37.5

52%

CLE 19.30–18.44 TEN

Data-Driven Pick · C. Ward Over 185.5 pass yds

-110

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · W1

106 PF · 122 PA

19.30

Projected

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · W1

84 PF · 129 PA

18.44

CLE 53%TEN 47%

Projected CLE 19.30–18.44 TEN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TEN -0.5

CLE -1.5

Total

38.2

37.5

Gap: +2.0 margin, +0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CLE vs TEN

The model

How this number was built

CLE 19.30–18.44 TEN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TEN -5.9 vs CLE -4.6 · pred margin -0.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) TEN off -0.10, def stop -0.04 · CLE off -0.09, def stop +0.04 · model TEN 19.6–20.4 CLE
Home field
+2.4 pts to TEN
Record
TEN 1-5 · CLE 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward CLE -1.5 / total 37.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Deshaun Watson
Pass 111/174, 1174 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
Quinshon Judkins
Rush 73 CAR, 221 YDS, 1 TD
Denzel Boston
Rec 17 REC, 345 YDS, 3 TD

Cam Ward
Pass 109/177, 998 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Tony Pollard
Rush 87 CAR, 349 YDS, 1 TD
Carnell Tate
Rec 29 REC, 344 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CLE	TEN
Points Per Game	17.7	14.0
Total Yards	289.7	249.2
Yards Passing	195.7	166.3
Yards Rushing	94.0	82.8
Points Allowed Per Game	20.3	21.5
Yards Allowed	339.7	357.8
Pass Yards Allowed	227.3	235.3
Rush Yards Allowed	112.3	122.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

C. Ward Over 185.5 pass yds

-11066%

Passing yards · DraftKings

D. Watson Over 204.5 pass yds
Passing yards · CLE
-110
58%
T. Pollard Under 68.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · TEN
-110
54%
D. Boston Over 3.5 rec
Receptions · CLE
-110
53%
C. Tate Under 54.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · TEN
-110
53%
C. Ward Over 0.5 pass TD
Passing TDs · TEN
-110
53%
D. Watson anytime TD
Anytime TD · CLE
-110
52%
D. Boston anytime TD
Anytime TD · CLE
-110
52%
D. Watson Over 30.5 att
Pass attempts · CLE
-110
52%
D. Watson Over 18.5 cmp
Completions · CLE
-110
52%
C. Ward Over 18.5 cmp
Completions · TEN
-110
52%
D. Watson Under 1.5 pass TD
Passing TDs · CLE
-110
52%

Browns vs Titans prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 37.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Browns 19.3, Titans 18.4. Model win probability: Titans 47%, Browns 53%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day