NFLSun 12:00 PM CTM&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

TV · CBS

Sun 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CIN +3

54%

CIN 24.52–26.55 BAL

Data-Driven Pick · D. Henry Under 86.5 rush yds

-110

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · W1 · computer pick

128 PF · 109 PA

24.52

Projected

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · L1

156 PF · 132 PA

26.55

CIN 44%BAL 56%

Projected CIN 24.52–26.55 BAL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

Pick'em

BAL -3.0

Total

50.2

51.5

Gap: -3.0 margin, -1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CIN vs BAL

The model

How this number was built

CIN 24.52–26.55 BAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BAL +0.5 vs CIN +2.4 · pred margin +2.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) BAL off +0.05, def stop -0.00 · CIN off +0.05, def stop -0.03 · rest -7d · QB change: BAL · model BAL 22.9–24.1 CIN
Home field
+2.4 pts to BAL
Record
BAL 4-2 · CIN 3-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward BAL -3 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Joe Burrow
Pass 135/189, 1361 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT
Chase Brown
Rush 71 CAR, 246 YDS, 1 TD
Tee Higgins
Rec 27 REC, 423 YDS, 1 TD

Lamar Jackson
Pass 68/96, 967 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Derrick Henry
Rush 130 CAR, 534 YDS, 7 TD
Zay Flowers
Rec 32 REC, 471 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CIN	BAL
Points Per Game	25.6	26.0
Total Yards	355.0	384.2
Yards Passing	272.2	232.7
Yards Rushing	82.8	151.5
Points Allowed Per Game	21.8	22.0
Yards Allowed	368.0	326.2
Pass Yards Allowed	245.0	225.7
Rush Yards Allowed	123.0	100.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. Henry Under 86.5 rush yds

-11061%

Rushing yards · DraftKings

D. Henry anytime TD
Anytime TD · BAL
-110
64%
Z. Flowers anytime TD
Anytime TD · BAL
-110
64%
CIN anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
63%
BAL anytime TD
Anytime TD · BAL
-110
63%
J. Burrow anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
61%
T. Higgins anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
61%
C. Brown anytime TD
Anytime TD · CIN
-110
61%
J. Burrow Under 259.5 pass yds
Passing yards · CIN
-110
58%
T. Higgins Under 63.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · CIN
-110
58%
C. Brown Over 50.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · CIN
-110
55%
C. Brown Over 12.5 car
Carries · CIN
-110
54%

Bengals vs Ravens prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CIN +3, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Bengals 24.5, Ravens 26.6. Model win probability: Ravens 56%, Bengals 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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