NFLThu 7:15 PM CTSoldier Field

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

TV · Prime Video

Thu 7:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NE +3

53%

NE 23.67–26.48 CHI

Data-Driven Pick · C. Williams Over 4.5 car

-110

New England Patriots

4-2 · W3 · computer pick

136 PF · 113 PA

23.67

Projected

Chicago Bears

4-2 · W1

150 PF · 119 PA

26.48

NE 42%CHI 58%

Projected NE 23.67–26.48 CHI

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CHI -2.4

CHI -3.0

Total

49.4

50.5

Gap: -0.6 margin, -1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NE vs CHI

The model

How this number was built

NE 23.67–26.48 CHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CHI +3.7 vs NE +2.4 · pred margin +2.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) CHI off +0.01, def stop +0.01 · NE off +0.08, def stop -0.00 · model CHI 23.2–23.7 NE
Home field
+2.4 pts to CHI
Record
CHI 4-2 · NE 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward CHI -3 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Drake Maye
Pass 117/183, 1463 YDS, 11 TD, 7 INT
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rush 71 CAR, 263 YDS, 2 TD
DeMario Douglas
Rec 20 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD

Caleb Williams
Pass 66/91, 712 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
D'Andre Swift
Rush 94 CAR, 398 YDS, 6 TD
Luther Burden III
Rec 31 REC, 361 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NE	CHI
Points Per Game	22.7	25.0
Total Yards	382.2	406.7
Yards Passing	251.5	246.0
Yards Rushing	130.7	160.7
Points Allowed Per Game	18.8	19.8
Yards Allowed	319.3	318.5
Pass Yards Allowed	227.5	228.0
Rush Yards Allowed	91.8	90.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

C. Williams Over 4.5 car

-11063%

Carries · DraftKings

D. Maye Over 5.5 car
Carries · NE
-110
62%
D. Maye Under 282.5 pass+rush yds
Pass + rush yards · NE
-110
60%
R. Stevenson Over 42.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · NE
-110
60%
D. Swift Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · CHI
-110
59%
C. Williams Over 19.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · CHI
-110
58%
R. Stevenson Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · NE
-110
58%
D. Swift Over 17.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · CHI
-110
58%
R. Stevenson Over 18.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · NE
-110
58%
D. Maye Over 29.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · NE
-110
56%
R. Stevenson Over 65.5 rush+rec yds
Rush + rec yards · NE
-110
56%
L. Burden III Under 57.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · CHI
-110
56%

Patriots vs Bears prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NE +3, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Patriots 23.7, Bears 26.5. Model win probability: Bears 58%, Patriots 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day