Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
TV · NBA League Pass
At lock DET 112.79–114.32 PHI · PHI by 1.5 pts vs DET +2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · J. Collins Over 14.5 pts
At lock: projected DET 112.79–114.32 PHI
Model vs market
Gap: -6.2 margin, +3.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs PHI
Pistons vs 76ers prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DET +2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Pistons 112.8, 76ers 114.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: 76ers 55%, Pistons 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day