Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves
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At lock TOR 114.78–116.17 MIN · 0.6 pts under 231.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · A. Dosunmu Over 3.5 ast
At lock: projected TOR 114.78–116.17 MIN
Model vs market
Gap: -0.4 margin, -1.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOR vs MIN
Raptors vs Timberwolves prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 231.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Raptors 114.8, Timberwolves 116.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Timberwolves 55%, Raptors 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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