Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
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At lock ORL 108.89–116.03 NY · 0.4 pts over 224.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected ORL 108.89–116.03 NY
Model vs market
Gap: -1.2 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORL vs NY
Magic vs Knicks prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 224.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Magic 108.9, Knicks 116.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Knicks 72%, Magic 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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