Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets
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At lock IND 119.08–112.62 BKN · IND by 6.5 pts vs BKN +7.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected IND 119.08–112.62 BKN
Model vs market
Gap: +5.6 margin, -5.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: IND vs BKN
Pacers vs Nets prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BKN +7.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Pacers 119.1, Nets 112.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Nets 32%, Pacers 68%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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