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Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings

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Computer pick · Total

Under 232.5

51%

At lock POR 119.36–112.90 SAC · 0.2 pts under 232.5

Players

D. Lillard · POR
Goalkeeper
R. Williams III · POR
Forwards
J. Morant · POR
Goalkeeper
Z. LaVine · SAC
Goalkeeper
D. Sabonis · SAC
Forwards

Portland Trail Blazers

1-0 · W1

124 PF · 83 PA

119.36

Projected

Sacramento Kings

0-1 · L1

96 PF · 121 PA

112.90

POR 72%SAC 28%

At lock: projected POR 119.36–112.90 SAC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

POR -6.4

POR -7.5

Total

231.7

232.5

Gap: +1.1 margin, -0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: POR vs SAC

The model

How this number was built

POR 119.36–112.90 SAC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SAC -8.4 vs POR +0.5 · pred margin -7.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -6.1 vs +2.5 · model SAC 111.0–118.1 POR
Home field
+2.8 pts to SAC
Record
SAC 0-1 · POR 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward POR -7.5 / total 232.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Damian Lillard
PTS 25.0
Robert Williams III
REB 10.0
Ja Morant
AST 8.0
Damian Lillard
rating 25.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Zach LaVine
PTS 28.0
Domantas Sabonis
REB 18.0
Domantas Sabonis
AST 8.0
Domantas Sabonis
rating 14.0 PPG, 18.0 RPG, 8.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	POR	SAC
STRK	W1	L1
OPP PPG	83.0	121.0
L10	1-0	0-1
PTS	124.0	96.0
FG%	48	42
3P%	40	29
REB	56.0	42.0
AST	32.0	22.0
BLK	1.0	0.0
STL	12.0	10.0
TTO	0.0	0.0
ToTO	17.0	17.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Trail Blazers vs Kings prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 232.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Trail Blazers 119.4, Kings 112.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Kings 28%, Trail Blazers 72%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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