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New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

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Fri 8:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NO +4.5

51%

At lock NO 118.79–122.93 UTAH · NO by 0.4 pts vs NO +4.5

Players

D. Murray · NO
Goalkeeper
Y. Missi · NO
Forwards
K. George · UTAH
Goalkeeper
L. Markkanen · UTAH
Forwards

New Orleans Pelicans

0-1 · L1 · computer pick

120 PF · 123 PA

118.79

Projected

Utah Jazz

0-1 · L1

103 PF · 123 PA

122.93

NO 37%UTAH 63%

At lock: projected NO 118.79–122.93 UTAH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UTAH -3.2

UTAH -4.5

Total

242.3

241.5

Gap: -1.3 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NO vs UTAH

The model

How this number was built

NO 118.79–122.93 UTAH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UTAH -3.1 vs NO -5.3 · pred margin +4.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -6.1 vs -2.1 · model UTAH 121.2–123.5 NO
Home field
+2.8 pts to UTAH
Record
UTAH 0-1 · NO 0-1
Market prior
Blended 71% toward UTAH -4.5 / total 241.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dejounte Murray
PTS 23.0
Yves Missi
REB 14.0
Dejounte Murray
AST 7.0
Yves Missi
rating 13.0 PPG, 14.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 3.0 BPG

Keyonte George
PTS 22.0
Lauri Markkanen
REB 9.0
Keyonte George
AST 5.0
Keyonte George
rating 22.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NO	UTAH
STRK	L1	L1
OPP PPG	123.0	123.0
L10	0-1	0-1
PTS	120.0	103.0
FG%	43	47
3P%	33	34
REB	49.0	38.0
AST	23.0	25.0
BLK	6.0	12.0
STL	11.0	9.0
TTO	1.0	0.0
ToTO	15.0	18.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Pelicans vs Jazz prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NO +4.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Pelicans 118.8, Jazz 122.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jazz 63%, Pelicans 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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