NBAFri 8:30 PM CTMoody Center

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

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Fri 8:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 226.5

51%

At lock HOU 110.15–116.58 SA · 0.2 pts over 226.5

Players

K. Durant · HOU
Forwards
A. Thompson · HOU
Goalkeeper
F. VanVleet · HOU
Goalkeeper
J. Smith Jr. · HOU
Forwards
S. Castle · SA
Goalkeeper
V. Wembanyama · SA
Forwards

Data-Driven Pick · D. Vassell Over 13.5 pts

-115

Houston Rockets

1-0 · W1

128 PF · 110 PA

110.15

Projected

San Antonio Spurs

0-1 · L1

104 PF · 116 PA

116.58

HOU 30%SA 70%

At lock: projected HOU 110.15–116.58 SA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SA -6.3

SA -6.5

Total

228.1

227.5

Gap: -0.2 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HOU vs SA

The model

How this number was built

HOU 110.15–116.58 SA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SA +6.8 vs HOU +2.8 · pred margin +6.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +5.6 vs +3.2 · model SA 117.2–112.6 HOU
Home field
+2.8 pts to SA
Record
SA 0-1 · HOU 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward SA -6.5 / total 227.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kevin Durant
PTS 30.0
Amen Thompson
REB 10.0
Fred VanVleet
AST 11.0
Jabari Smith Jr.
rating 30.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 2.0 SPG

Stephon Castle
PTS 24.0
Victor Wembanyama
REB 13.0
De'Aaron Fox
AST 7.0
De'Aaron Fox
rating 14.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HOU	SA
STRK	W1	L1
OPP PPG	110.0	116.0
L10	1-0	0-1
PTS	128.0	104.0
FG%	53	39
3P%	44	27
REB	42.0	45.0
AST	32.0	21.0
BLK	2.0	11.0
STL	11.0	6.0
TTO	1.0	1.0
ToTO	16.0	14.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. Vassell Over 13.5 pts

-11558%

Points · DraftKings

S. Castle Under 11.5 reb
Rebounds · SA
-104
55%
D. Fox Over 20.5 pts
Points · SA
-109
53%
D. Harper Over 21.5 pts
Points · SA
-107
52%
V. Wembanyama Under 13.5 reb
Rebounds · SA
-107
52%
V. Wembanyama Under 27.5 pts
Points · SA
-107
51%
S. Castle Over 23.5 pts
Points · SA
-110
51%

Rockets vs Spurs prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 226.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Rockets 110.2, Spurs 116.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Spurs 70%, Rockets 30%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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