Liga MXSun 8:05 PM CTEstadio Banorte

Pachuca at América

Sun 8:05 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

58%

At lock PAC 1.32–1.97 AME · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Rondón · PAC
Forward
H. Martín · AME
Forward

Pachuca

3-4-6

Form DLDLD · 20 PF · 18 PA

1.32

Projected

América

8-3-1

Form DWDWD · 32 PF · 16 PA

1.97

PAC 22%Draw 27%AME 51%

At lock: projected PAC 1.32–1.97 AME · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AME win

70%

76% (no-vig)

Total

2.89

2.5

Gap: -6 pts of win %, +0.39 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

PAC 1.32–1.97 AME · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AME att +0.19 / def +0.15 · PAC att -0.13 / def +0.05 · model AME 1.9–1.0 PAC
Home field
+0.3 goals to AME
Record
AME 8-3-1 · PAC 3-4-6
Market prior
Blended 65% toward AME -170 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Salomón Rondón
goals 13
Salomón Rondón
goalsleaders 13

Henry Martín
goals 7
Henry Martín
goalsleaders 7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Zendejas anytime goal
Anytime goal · AME
+185
35%
A. Gutierrez anytime goal
Anytime goal · AME
+750
12%
S. Bueno anytime goal
Anytime goal · AME
+1400
7%
I. Reyes anytime goal
Anytime goal · AME
+1700
6%

Pachuca vs América prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected Pachuca 1.3, América 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: América 51%, Pachuca 22%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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