Liga MXSun 10:10 PM CTEstadio Caliente

Santos at Tijuana

Sun 10:10 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock SAN 1.02–1.62 TIJ · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Jiménez · SAN
Forward
G. Mora · TIJ
Midfielder

Santos

6-1-6

Form DWWWW · 19 PF · 16 PA

1.02

Projected

Tijuana

4-5-3

Form DDDLD · 17 PF · 16 PA

1.62

SAN 23%Draw 27%TIJ 50%

At lock: projected SAN 1.02–1.62 TIJ · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

TIJ win

67%

63% (no-vig)

Total

2.92

2.5

Gap: +4 pts of win %, +0.42 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

SAN 1.02–1.62 TIJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TIJ att -0.13 / def -0.06 · SAN att -0.24 / def -0.24 · model TIJ 1.8–1.1 SAN
Home field
+0.3 goals to TIJ
Record
TIJ 4-5-3 · SAN 6-1-6
Market prior
Blended 65% toward TIJ +100 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tahiel Jiménez
goals 5
Tahiel Jiménez
goalsleaders 5

Gilberto Mora
goals 5
Gilberto Mora
goalsleaders 5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

G. Mora anytime goal
Anytime goal · TIJ
+180
36%
J. Porozo anytime goal
Anytime goal · TIJ
+1200
8%
F. Sanchez anytime goal
Anytime goal · SAN
+2000
6%

Santos vs Tijuana prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Santos 1.0, Tijuana 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Tijuana 50%, Santos 23%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Liga MX picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day