LibertadoresThu 7:30 PM CTEstadio do Maracana

Estudiantes de La Plata at Flamengo

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Thu 7:30 PM CT

Games & odds only · model picks aren't published for this league yet.

Estudiantes de La Plata

2-3-1

Form DDDWL · 6 PF · 5 PA

0.54

Projected

Flamengo

5-1-0 · computer pick

Form DDWDW · 14 PF · 2 PA

1.95

EST 9%Draw 20%FLA 71%

Projected EST 0.54–1.95 FLA · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

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Total

The model

How this number was built

EST 0.54–1.95 FLA · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
FLA +0.5 off · EST -0.1 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.4 goals to FLA
Record
FLA 5-1-0 · EST 2-3-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward FLA -350 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tiago Palacios
goals Matches: 6, Goals: 3
Alexis Castro
AST Matches: 9, Assists: 1
Guido Carrillo
totalshots 20
Leandro González Pírez
Pass 354
Fernando Muslera
SV 24

Bruno Henrique
goals Matches: 9, Goals: 5
Bruno Henrique
AST Matches: 9, Assists: 2
Bruno Henrique
totalshots 13
Léo Pereira
Pass 321
Agustín Rossi
SV 20

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	EST	FLA
Goal Difference	2	14
Total Goals	8	17
Assists	5	10
Goals Against	6	3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Carrascal anytime goal
Anytime goal · FLA
+265
27%
G. Plata anytime goal
Anytime goal · FLA
+290
26%
A. Valencia anytime goal
Anytime goal · FLA
+330
23%
Alex Sandro anytime goal
Anytime goal · FLA
+1400
7%
G. Varela anytime goal
Anytime goal · FLA
+2200
6%

Estudiantes vs Flamengo prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The model projects Estudiantes 0.5, Flamengo 1.9. Model win probability: Flamengo 71%, Estudiantes 9%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Libertadores picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day