Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
TV · NBC
PHI 113.62–118.20 NY
Projected PHI 113.62–118.20 NY
Model vs market
Gap: +0.3 margin, -2.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PHI vs NY
The model
How this number was built
PHI 113.62–118.20 NY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNY +4.7 vs PHI +3.4 · pred margin +4.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +4.1 vs -0.2 · model NY 115.6–109.2 PHI
- Home field+2.8 pts to NY
- RecordNY 1-4 · PHI 1-3
- Market priorBlended 69% toward NY -4.5 / total 232.5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PHI | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | - | - |
| OPP PPG | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
76ers vs Knicks prediction · Oct 20, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHI +5.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects 76ers 113.6, Knicks 118.2. Model win probability: Knicks 65%, 76ers 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day