NCAAFTue 6:00 PM CTPitbull Stadium

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Florida International Panthers

TV · CBSSN

Tue 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

FIU -10

52%

MTSU 17.29–28.43 FIU

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

3-3 · W1

137 PF · 170 PA

17.29

Projected

Florida International Panthers

3-3 · L1 · computer pick

118 PF · 88 PA

28.43

MTSU 25%FIU 75%

Projected MTSU 17.29–28.43 FIU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

FIU -12.5

FIU -10.5

Total

46.2

45.5

Gap: +2.0 margin, +0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MTSU vs FIU

The model

How this number was built

MTSU 17.29–28.43 FIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
FIU -9.2 vs MTSU -18.3 · pred margin +11.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.2 vs -4.2 · model FIU 30.6–17.3 MTSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to FIU
Record
FIU 3-3 · MTSU 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward FIU -10.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Roman Gagliano
Pass 110/188, 1204 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT
Antonio Martin
Rush 83 CAR, 433 YDS, 1 TD
Cam'ron Lacy
Rec 35 REC, 369 YDS, 4 TD

JJ Kohl
Pass 116/199, 1458 YDS, 7 TD, 7 INT
Devonte Lyons
Rush 65 CAR, 268 YDS, 1 TD
Maguire Anderson
Rec 33 REC, 534 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MTSU	FIU
Points Per Game	22.8	19.7
Total Yards	321.5	382.7
Yards Passing	200.7	262.7
Yards Rushing	120.8	120.0
Points Allowed Per Game	28.3	14.7
Yards Allowed	415.7	266.0
Pass Yards Allowed	216.5	166.0
Rush Yards Allowed	199.2	100.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

MTSU vs FIU prediction · Oct 20, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FIU -10, with a 52% model probability. The model projects MTSU 17.3, FIU 28.4. Model win probability: FIU 75%, MTSU 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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