Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
TV · NBC
BOS 111.52–111.10 DET
Projected BOS 111.52–111.10 DET
Model vs market
Gap: +3.4 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs DET
The model
How this number was built
BOS 111.52–111.10 DET · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDET +3.5 vs BOS +4.3 · pred margin -0.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs +5.4 · model DET 112.9–111.0 BOS
- Home field+2.8 pts to DET
- RecordDET 3-1 · BOS 4-0
- Market priorBlended 69% toward BOS -1.5 / total 222.5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOS | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | - | - |
| OPP PPG | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtics vs Pistons prediction · Oct 20, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 221.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Celtics 111.5, Pistons 111.1. Model win probability: Pistons 49%, Celtics 51%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day