EredivisieSun 6:15 AM CTFortuna Sittard Stadion

Excelsior at Fortuna Sittard

Sun 6:15 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

At lock EXC 1.16–1.59 FOR · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

I. Yegoian · EXC
Midfielder
A. Descotte · FOR
Forward

Excelsior

3-2-4

Form DLDLD · 16 PF · 18 PA

1.16

Projected

Fortuna Sittard

4-3-2

Form DDWLW · 16 PF · 17 PA

1.59

EXC 27%Draw 27%FOR 46%

At lock: projected EXC 1.16–1.59 FOR · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

FOR win

56%

55% (no-vig)

Total

3.24

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.74 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

EXC 1.16–1.59 FOR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FOR att -0.20 / def -0.13 · EXC att -0.18 / def -0.15 · model FOR 1.8–1.5 EXC
Home field
+0.3 goals to FOR
Record
FOR 4-3-2 · EXC 3-2-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward FOR +135 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Irakli Yegoian
goals 3
Irakli Yegoian
goalsleaders 3

Anthony Descotte
goals 5
Anthony Descotte
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	EXC	FOR
Goal Difference	-2	-1
Total Goals	16	16
Assists	13	10
Goals Against	18	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

O. Romeny anytime goal
Anytime goal · FOR
+280
26%
A. Jahanbakhsh anytime goal
Anytime goal · EXC
+350
22%
A. Sliti anytime goal
Anytime goal · EXC
+380
21%
V. Sulzbacher anytime goal
Anytime goal · EXC
+850
11%
K. Bos anytime goal
Anytime goal · EXC
+850
11%

Excelsior vs Fortuna prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Excelsior 1.2, Fortuna 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Fortuna 46%, Excelsior 27%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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