EredivisieSun 2:00 PM CTAFAS Stadion

FC Twente at AZ Alkmaar

TV · ESPN+

Sun 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

58%

At lock TWE 1.46–1.86 AZ · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

W. Weghorst · TWE
Forward
R. Daal · AZ
Forward

FC Twente

5-2-2

Form DLWDW · 17 PF · 10 PA

1.46

Projected

AZ Alkmaar

6-2-1

Form DDWLW · 20 PF · 10 PA

1.86

TWE 30%Draw 24%AZ 46%

At lock: projected TWE 1.46–1.86 AZ · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AZ win

54%

58% (no-vig)

Total

2.97

3.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.53 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

TWE 1.46–1.86 AZ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AZ att +0.06 / def +0.15 · TWE att +0.05 / def +0.23 · model AZ 1.6–1.4 TWE
Home field
+0.3 goals to AZ
Record
AZ 6-2-1 · TWE 5-2-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward AZ +115 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Wout Weghorst
goals 4
Wout Weghorst
goalsleaders 4

Ro-Zangelo Daal
goals 5
Ro-Zangelo Daal
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TWE	AZ
Goal Difference	7	10
Total Goals	17	20
Assists	13	14
Goals Against	10	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Meerdink anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+130
43%
W. Weghorst anytime goal
Anytime goal · TWE
+170
37%
L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goal
Anytime goal · TWE
+230
30%
C. Stengs anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+275
27%
R. Daal anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+275
27%
D. Rots anytime goal
Anytime goal · TWE
+310
24%
K. Hlynsson anytime goal
Anytime goal · TWE
+310
24%
W. Bouziane anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+475
17%
D. Kasius anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+600
14%
R. Zerrouki anytime goal
Anytime goal · TWE
+650
13%
J. Clasie anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+700
13%
P. Koopmeiners anytime goal
Anytime goal · AZ
+700
13%

FC Twente vs AZ Alkmaar prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected FC Twente 1.5, AZ Alkmaar 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: AZ Alkmaar 46%, FC Twente 30%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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