BelgiumSun 1:15 PM CTStade Joseph Marien

Cercle Brugge KSV at Union St.-Gilloise

Sun 1:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock CBK 0.89–2.57 USG · 0.04 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Ngoura · CBK
Forward
R. Florucz · USG
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · R. Florucz anytime goal

+100

Cercle Brugge KSV

0-3-5

Form DLDLL · 9 PF · 16 PA

0.89

Projected

Union St.-Gilloise

6-2-0

Form DDDWW · 22 PF · 4 PA

2.57

CBK 11%Draw 17%USG 72%

At lock: projected CBK 0.89–2.57 USG · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

USG win

87%

86% (no-vig)

Total

3.36

3.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, -0.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 514 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2337. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

CBK 0.89–2.57 USG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): USG att +0.27 / def +0.62 · CBK att -0.09 / def -0.21 · model USG 2.7–0.7 CBK
Home field
+0.3 goals to USG
Record
USG 6-2-0 · CBK 0-3-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward USG -310 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Steve Ngoura
goals 2
Steve Ngoura
goalsleaders 2

Raul Florucz
goals 4
Raul Florucz
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CBK	USG
Goal Difference	-7	18
Total Goals	9	22
Assists	3	17
Goals Against	16	4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

R. Florucz anytime goal

+10050%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

K. Rodríguez anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+110
48%
M. Biondic anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+140
42%
R. Mofokeng anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+140
42%
D. Olaru anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+195
34%
B. Zeneli anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+195
34%
R. Schoofs anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+330
23%
A. Ait El Hadj anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+350
22%
Y. Hamoutahar anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+350
22%
R. Sykes anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+370
21%
A. Zorgane anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+450
18%
L. Patris anytime goal
Anytime goal · USG
+600
14%

Cercle Brugge vs Union SG prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Cercle Brugge 0.9, Union SG 2.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Union SG 72%, Cercle Brugge 11%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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