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Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

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Computer pick · Spread

GS -3.5

51%

At lock MEM 115.77–119.62 GS · GS by 0.4 pts vs GS -3.5

Players

T. Jerome · MEM
Goalkeeper
C. Boozer · MEM
Forwards
S. Curry · GS
Goalkeeper
W. Richard · GS
Goalkeeper
D. Green · GS
Forwards

Memphis Grizzlies

1-0 · W1

123 PF · 103 PA

115.77

Projected

Golden State Warriors

0-1 · L1 · computer pick

105 PF · 127 PA

119.62

MEM 37%GS 63%

At lock: projected MEM 115.77–119.62 GS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

GS -4.7

GS -3.5

Total

235.1

235.5

Gap: +1.2 margin, -0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MEM vs GS

The model

How this number was built

MEM 115.77–119.62 GS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
GS -1.9 vs MEM -3.7 · pred margin +3.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -2.6 vs -5.7 · model GS 119.5–114.3 MEM
Home field
+2.8 pts to GS
Record
GS 0-1 · MEM 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward GS -3.5 / total 235.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ty Jerome
PTS 45.0
Cameron Boozer
REB 11.0
Ty Jerome
AST 6.0
Ty Jerome
rating 45.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.0 BPG

Stephen Curry
PTS 23.0
Will Richard
REB 5.0
Draymond Green
AST 8.0
Stephen Curry
rating 23.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 2.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MEM	GS
STRK	W1	L1
OPP PPG	103.0	127.0
L10	1-0	0-1
PTS	123.0	105.0
FG%	47	41
3P%	38	22
REB	55.0	36.0
AST	23.0	25.0
BLK	7.0	2.0
STL	8.0	15.0
TTO	2.0	1.0
ToTO	15.0	16.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GS -3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Grizzlies 115.8, Warriors 119.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Warriors 63%, Grizzlies 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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