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Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat

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Fri 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

DET +1.5

53%

At lock DET 117.97–118.66 MIA · DET by 0.8 pts vs DET +1.5

Players

C. Cunningham · DET
Goalkeeper
A. Thompson · DET
Goalkeeper
J. Duren · DET
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo · MIA
Forwards
B. Adebayo · MIA
Forwards
D. Mitchell · MIA
Goalkeeper

Detroit Pistons

1-0 · W1 · computer pick

121 PF · 113 PA

117.97

Projected

Miami Heat

0-1 · L1

106 PF · 131 PA

118.66

DET 45%MIA 55%

At lock: projected DET 117.97–118.66 MIA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DET -1.3

MIA -2.5

Total

237.7

237.5

Gap: -3.8 margin, +0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DET vs MIA

The model

How this number was built

DET 117.97–118.66 MIA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MIA +0.7 vs DET +3.9 · pred margin +1.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -0.0 vs +5.5 · model MIA 117.2–121.3 DET
Home field
+2.8 pts to MIA
Record
MIA 0-1 · DET 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward MIA -2.5 / total 237.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cade Cunningham
PTS 22.0
Ausar Thompson
REB 11.0
Cade Cunningham
AST 8.0
Jalen Duren
rating 22.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Giannis Antetokounmpo
PTS 35.0
Bam Adebayo
REB 7.0
Davion Mitchell
AST 11.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo
rating 35.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DET	MIA
STRK	W1	L1
OPP PPG	113.0	131.0
L10	1-0	0-1
PTS	121.0	106.0
FG%	45	48
3P%	38	24
REB	49.0	34.0
AST	27.0	27.0
BLK	5.0	5.0
STL	7.0	7.0
TTO	0.0	1.0
ToTO	17.0	19.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Pistons vs Heat prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DET +1.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Pistons 118.0, Heat 118.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Heat 55%, Pistons 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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