NBAFri 6:00 PM CTCapital One Arena

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards

TV · MNMT

Fri 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TOR -4.5

51%

At lock TOR 120.07–115.39 WSH · TOR by 0.2 pts vs TOR -4.5

Players

K. Leonard · TOR
Forwards
C. Murray-Boyles · TOR
Forwards
I. Quickley · TOR
Goalkeeper
A. Davis · WSH
Forwards
T. Young · WSH
Goalkeeper

Toronto Raptors

1-0 · W1 · computer pick

135 PF · 92 PA

120.07

Projected

Washington Wizards

1-0 · W1

128 PF · 116 PA

115.39

TOR 65%WSH 35%

At lock: projected TOR 120.07–115.39 WSH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TOR -5.1

TOR -4.5

Total

236.1

236.5

Gap: -0.6 margin, -0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TOR vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

TOR 120.07–115.39 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WSH -2.8 vs TOR +3.7 · pred margin -4.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -7.2 vs +3.8 · model WSH 112.7–122.3 TOR
Home field
+2.8 pts to WSH
Record
WSH 1-0 · TOR 1-0
Market prior
Blended 71% toward TOR -4.5 / total 236.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kawhi Leonard
PTS 23.0
Collin Murray-Boyles
REB 8.0
Immanuel Quickley
AST 7.0
Immanuel Quickley
rating 23.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 7.0 APG, 2.0 SPG

Anthony Davis
PTS 34.0
Anthony Davis
REB 12.0
Trae Young
AST 13.0
Anthony Davis
rating 34.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOR	WSH
STRK	W1	W1
OPP PPG	92.0	116.0
L10	1-0	1-0
PTS	135.0	128.0
FG%	45	52
3P%	32	21
REB	51.0	44.0
AST	31.0	28.0
BLK	6.0	7.0
STL	15.0	11.0
TTO	1.0	2.0
ToTO	11.0	13.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Raptors vs Wizards prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TOR -4.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Raptors 120.1, Wizards 115.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Wizards 35%, Raptors 65%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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