EredivisieSat 3:00 PM CTJohan Cruijff Arena

AZ Alkmaar at Ajax Amsterdam

TV · ESPN+

Sat 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

52%

At lock AZ 1.24–1.98 AJA · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

R. Daal · AZ
Forward
J. Brandt · AJA
Midfielder

AZ Alkmaar

6-2-2

Form DWDWL · 20 PF · 12 PA

1.24

Projected

Ajax Amsterdam

6-3-1

Form DWWLD · 29 PF · 13 PA

1.98

AZ 23%Draw 24%AJA 53%

At lock: projected AZ 1.24–1.98 AJA · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AJA win

65%

68% (no-vig)

Total

3.23

3.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.27 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

AZ 1.24–1.98 AJA · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AJA att +0.22 / def +0.24 · AZ att +0.03 / def +0.14 · model AJA 2.0–1.2 AZ
Home field
+0.3 goals to AJA
Record
AJA 6-3-1 · AZ 6-2-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ro-Zangelo Daal
goals 5
Ro-Zangelo Daal
goalsleaders 5

Julian Brandt
goals 6
Julian Brandt
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AZ	AJA
Goal Difference	8	16
Total Goals	20	29
Assists	14	20
Goals Against	12	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected AZ Alkmaar 1.2, Ajax 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Ajax 53%, AZ Alkmaar 23%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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