NBAMon 7:30 PM CTToyota Center (Houston)

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets

TV · NBA League Pass

Mon 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ATL +5.5

54%

At lock ATL 112.87–117.06 HOU · HOU by 4.2 pts vs ATL +5.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Johnson · ATL
Forward
K. Durant · HOU
Forward
A. Thompson · HOU
Guard
F. VanVleet · HOU
Guard
A. Sengun · HOU
Center

Data-Driven Pick · J. Landale Over 6.5 pts

-101

Atlanta Hawks

2-1 · L1 · computer pick

374 PF · 327 PA

112.87

Projected

Houston Rockets

3-0 · W3

363 PF · 334 PA

117.06

ATL 35%HOU 65%

At lock: projected ATL 112.87–117.06 HOU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

HOU -3.2

HOU -5.5

Total

229.9

229.5

Gap: -2.3 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ATL vs HOU

The model

How this number was built

ATL 112.87–117.06 HOU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
HOU +3.9 vs ATL +2.9 · pred margin +4.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +3.7 vs +4.4 · model HOU 116.1–114.8 ATL
Home field
+2.8 pts to HOU
Record
HOU 3-0 · ATL 2-1
Market prior
Blended 69% toward HOU -5.5 / total 229.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jalen Johnson
PTS 21.7
Jalen Johnson
REB 10.0
Jalen Johnson
AST 10.0
Jalen Johnson
rating 21.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 10.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.3 BPG

Kevin Durant
PTS 24.0
Amen Thompson
REB 10.3
Fred VanVleet
AST 8.0
Alperen Sengun
rating 23.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.3 APG, 0.3 SPG, 0.3 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATL	HOU
STRK	L1	W3
OPP PPG	109.0	111.3
L10	2-1	3-0
PTS	124.7	121.0
FG%	48	50
3P%	35	42
REB	44.0	43.0
AST	33.3	28.0
BLK	3.0	3.7
STL	11.7	9.3
TTO	0.7	1.0
ToTO	14.7	15.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

J. Landale Over 6.5 pts

-10162%

Points · DraftKings

L. Dort Over 6.5 pts
Points · ATL
-106
62%
A. Wiggins Over 11.5 pts
Points · ATL
-112
59%
T. Eason Over 11.5 pts
Points · HOU
-108
59%
F. VanVleet Over 12.5 pts
Points · HOU
-103
59%
C. McCollum Over 2.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
-109
59%
D. Daniels Over 12.5 pts
Points · ATL
+101
58%
A. Thompson Over 8.5 reb
Rebounds · HOU
-116
58%
N. Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+108
57%
J. Smith Jr. Over 14.5 pts
Points · HOU
-105
57%
C. McCollum Over 15.5 pts
Points · ATL
-102
56%
N. Alexander-Walker Over 17.5 pts
Points · ATL
-115
55%

Hawks vs Rockets prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ATL +5.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Hawks 112.9, Rockets 117.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rockets 65%, Hawks 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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