⌘K

Sim accuracy

How close were our sims?

Before each game starts we lock a 10,000-run simulation on our server: win %, most typical score, spread and total odds, and key player medians. It’s never edited. After the official final we grade it here, misses included.

Winner

61.2%

85-54

Spread

64.2%

68-38-2

Total

47.1%

64-72-0

Avg score error

13.4

139 games · 5 exact

Player sim leans

50.0%

6-6 vs DK lines

Calibration (favorite win %)

Sim said	Games	Avg sim	Actually won
50–60%	27	55%	63%
60–70%	52	65%	69%
70–80%	16	76%	63%
80–100%	19	87%	79%

Recent recaps

mlsSim VAN 2–1 ATX · Final 2–1Exact score
mlsSim TOR 2–2 RBNY · Final 2–0Missed · off by 2
mlsSim MIA 2–2 ATL · Final 3–1Called it
mlsSim LAFC 1–1 NYC · Final 1–1Exact score
mlsSim CHI 2–2 NE · Final 0–1Called it
mlsSim DC 2–2 ORL · Final 1–4Called it
ncaafSim UK 19–25 OU · Final 21–13Missed · off by 14
ncaafSim TCU 21–27 BAY · Final 17–6Missed · off by 25
nhlSim DAL 4–3 CHI · Final 4–0Called it
ncaafSim NEV 15–28 NDSU · Final 17–31Winner called · off by 5
ncaafSim KENT 13–33 USF · Final 2–29Winner called · off by 15
ncaafSim ARK 22–27 VAN · Final 31–21Missed · off by 15
ncaafSim PRST 23–37 NAU · Final 25–38Called it
ncaafSim CARK 23–39 TAR · Final 35–49Winner called · off by 22
nhlSim BUF 3–4 MTL · Final 3–4Exact score
nhlSim OTT 3–2 PHI · Final 1–3Missed · off by 3
nhlSim SJ 3–4 DET · Final 3–4Exact score
nhlSim NYI 3–4 TOR · Final 4–1Missed · off by 4
ncaafSim MORG 28–24 TNST · Final 16–25Missed · off by 13
nhlSim SEA 3–4 FLA · Final 3–8Winner called · off by 4
ncaafSim WSU 17–36 ORST · Final 30–48Winner called · off by 25
ncaafSim UNI 21–37 YSU · Final 22–35Called it
ncaafSim LAM 26–23 SELA · Final 31–34Missed · off by 16
ncaafSim SDAK 42–19 MUR · Final 48–20Winner called · off by 7
ncaafSim TROY 23–27 UL · Final 6–33Winner called · off by 23
ncaafSim LIU 24–19 WAG · Final 14–9Winner called · off by 20
ncaafSim TLSA 26–21 RICE · Final 38–17Winner called · off by 16
mlsSim STL 2–2 MIN · Final 2–3Missed · off by 1
ncaafSim ILST 30–25 SIU · Final 35–14Winner called · off by 16
nhlSim VAN 3–4 TB · Final 2–4Called it
ncaafSim SFA 34–16 NICH · Final 56–0Winner called · off by 38
ncaafSim VAL 24–28 USD · Final 13–38Winner called · off by 21
ncaafSim ASU 19–32 TTU · Final 25–53Winner called · off by 27
ncaafSim VILL 27–22 FOR · Final 38–17Winner called · off by 16
nhlSim CAR 4–3 WPG · Final 3–2Called it
ncaafSim PSU 19–24 MICH · Final 18–21Winner called · off by 4
ncaafSim TOL 30–23 EMU · Final 34–14Winner called · off by 13
wnbaSim ATL 78–81 GS · Final 64–68Winner called · off by 27
ncaafSim AUB 17–34 UGA · Final 27–24Missed · off by 20
ncaafSim ALA 29–23 TENN · Final 10–26Missed · off by 22
ncaafSim MIZ 27–31 MISS · Final 3–31Winner called · off by 24
ncaafSim MOR 25–28 HOW · Final 17–31Winner called · off by 11
ncaafSim GT 24–33 VT · Final 24–34Called it
ncaafSim UNC 22–25 DUKE · Final 24–20Missed · off by 7
ncaafSim NIU 17–24 WYO · Final 23–41Winner called · off by 23
ncaafSim UNLV 23–25 AFA · Final 31–41Winner called · off by 24
ncaafSim AKR 18–29 M-OH · Final 14–34Winner called · off by 9
ncaafSim TOW 23–34 CAM · Final 20–24Winner called · off by 13
ncaafSim LAF 28–25 BUCK · Final 20–7Winner called · off by 26
ncaafSim WIU 25–30 SEMO · Final 30–40Winner called · off by 15
ncaafSim GRAM 27–32 AAMU · Final 31–61Winner called · off by 33
ncaafSim ALST 31–27 UAPB · Final 21–15Winner called · off by 22
ncaafSim ALCN 26–30 PV · Final 38–41Winner called · off by 23
ncaafSim BCU 29–24 MVSU · Final 34–14Winner called · off by 15
ncaafSim GWEB 26–25 UTM · Final 6–17Missed · off by 28
laligaSim ATH 1–1 VAL · Final 0–0Missed · off by 2
ncaafSim IDST 33–29 WEB · Final 20–27Missed · off by 15
ncaafSim LIN 26–25 EIU · Final 20–13Winner called · off by 18
ncaafSim FAMU 21–33 JKST · Final 17–27Winner called · off by 10
ncaafSim IDHO 23–38 MONT · Final 42–35Missed · off by 22
ligue1Sim BRE 1–2 LILL · Final 1–1Missed · off by 1
ligue1Sim RCL 1–1 TRY · Final 3–1Missed · off by 2
serieaSim GEN 1–1 ROMA · Final 0–2Called it
ncaafSim EKU 21–33 TNTC · Final 20–49Winner called · off by 17
ncaafSim ALB 22–27 STBK · Final 48–31Missed · off by 30
mlsSim CLT 2–2 PHI · Final 2–2Exact score
ncaafSim APSU 36–19 WES · Final 24–10Winner called · off by 21
ncaafSim SDST 34–23 UND · Final 10–21Missed · off by 26
ncaafSim PRES 33–25 STET · Final 47–43Winner called · off by 32
ncaafSim LEH 29–20 COR · Final 38–48Missed · off by 37
ncaafSim WMU 25–20 CMU · Final 21–14Winner called · off by 10
ncaafSim VMI 12–36 WOF · Final 14–41Winner called · off by 7
nhlSim NJ 3–4 WSH · Final 2–4Called it
ncaafSim CLT 15–33 TEM · Final 38–31Missed · off by 25
ncaafSim HC 19–32 HARV · Final 7–30Winner called · off by 14
ncaafSim GTWN 16–31 COLG · Final 27–17Missed · off by 25
ncaafSim MRST 23–27 DRKE · Final 27–22Missed · off by 9
ncaafSim MASS 20–26 BUFF · Final 18–25Called it
ncaafSim BRY 25–24 ME · Final 17–14Winner called · off by 18
ncaafSim MONM 31–26 UNH · Final 42–21Winner called · off by 16

Model simulations, not guarantees. Finals: NHL api-web.nhle.com, MLB statsapi.mlb.com, others ESPN. Data for the daily recap: /api/sims/recap.