WNBAThu 11:30 AM CTState Farm Arena

Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream

TV · USA Net

Thu 11:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 147.5

53%

At lock GS 74.51–77.45 ATL · 4.5 pts over 147.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Williams · GS
Forward
K. Stokes · GS
Center
V. Burton · GS
Guard
A. Gray · ATL
Guard
A. Reese · ATL
Forward
J. Canada · ATL
Guard

Data-Driven Pick · K. Stokes Over 3.5 pts

-111

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · W1

3615 PF · 3305 PA

74.51

Projected

Atlanta Dream

30-14 · W5

4019 PF · 3717 PA

77.45

GS 37%ATL 63%

At lock: projected GS 74.51–77.45 ATL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

GS 74.51–77.45 ATL · High confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ATL +5.8 vs GS +5.7 · pred margin +3.5
Attack / defense
ATL +10.4 off · GS +3.0 off, shrunk 85%
Home field
+2.2 pts to ATL
Record
ATL 30-14 · GS 32-12
Market prior
Blended 59% toward ATL -4.5 / total 147.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabby Williams
PTS 14.4
Kiah Stokes
REB 5.8
Veronica Burton
AST 5.7
Veronica Burton
rating 12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Allisha Gray
PTS 19.0
Angel Reese
REB 12.1
Jordin Canada
AST 7.3
Angel Reese
rating 16.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GS	ATL
STRK	W2	L2
OPP PPG	76.0	75.0
Last Ten	7-3	7-3
PTS	82.2	91.3
FG%	42	44
3P%	34	33
REB	33.3	35.6
AST	19.3	21.5
BLK	4.0	3.3
STL	7.8	9.1
TTO	13.9	10.1
ToTO	24.2	22.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

K. Stokes Over 3.5 pts

-11158%

Points · DraftKings

A. Gray Over 14.5 pts
Points · ATL
-108
58%
A. Gray Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
-113
57%
V. Burton Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+117
57%
G. Williams Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+110
56%
K. Charles Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
-113
56%
R. Howard Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+107
56%
V. Burton Over 4.5 ast
Assists · GS
+104
55%
T. Hayes Over 2.5 ast
Assists · GS
-101
54%
A. Gray Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
+121
54%
A. Reese Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
-111
54%
V. Burton Over 10.5 pts
Points · GS
-112
54%

Valkyries vs Dream prediction · Oct 29, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 147.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Valkyries 74.5, Dream 77.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dream 63%, Valkyries 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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