Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
TV · NBC
At lock DET 108.74–110.78 NY · NY by 2.0 pts vs DET +3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: DET +3.5 locked at 55% when posted
Data-Driven Pick · A. Thompson Over 9.5 pts
At lock: projected DET 108.74–110.78 NY
Model vs market
Gap: -4.8 margin, +2.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs NY
Pistons vs Knicks prediction · Oct 27, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DET +3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Pistons 108.7, Knicks 110.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Knicks 57%, Pistons 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day