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Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries

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Computer pick · Total

Over 151.5

63%

ATL 76.52–79.07 GS

Data-Driven Pick · G. Williams Under 18.5 pts

-109

Atlanta Dream

30-14 · W5

4019 PF · 3717 PA

76.52

Projected

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · W1

3615 PF · 3305 PA

79.07

ATL 40%GS 60%

Projected ATL 76.52–79.07 GS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

ATL 76.52–79.07 GS · High confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
GS +5.9 vs ATL +5.4 · pred margin +2.5
Attack / defense
GS +3.0 off · ATL +10.4 off, shrunk 85%
Home field
+2.2 pts to GS
Record
GS 32-12 · ATL 30-14
Market prior
Blended 59% toward GS -2.5 / total 151.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Allisha Gray
PTS 19.0
Angel Reese
REB 12.1
Jordin Canada
AST 7.3
Angel Reese
rating 16.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Gabby Williams
PTS 14.4
Kiah Stokes
REB 5.8
Veronica Burton
AST 5.7
Veronica Burton
rating 12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ATL	GS
STRK	L1	W5
OPP PPG	80.5	77.6
Last Ten	5-1	6-1
PTS	91.3	82.2
FG%	44	42
3P%	33	34
REB	35.6	33.3
AST	21.5	19.3
BLK	3.3	4.0
STL	9.1	7.8
TTO	10.1	13.9
ToTO	22.6	24.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

G. Williams Under 18.5 pts

-10958%

Points · DraftKings

A. Gray Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+131
57%
J. Canada Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
-118
57%
V. Burton Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+112
57%
A. Gray Over 15.5 pts
Points · ATL
-106
57%
K. Stokes Over 1.5 ast
Assists · GS
-108
56%
G. Williams Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+107
56%
V. Burton Over 4.5 ast
Assists · GS
-106
55%
V. Burton Over 10.5 pts
Points · GS
+101
55%
A. Reese Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
+143
54%
J. Canada Over 10.5 pts
Points · ATL
-118
54%
G. Williams Over 3.5 ast
Assists · GS
+127
53%

Dream vs Valkyries prediction · Oct 19, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 151.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projects Dream 76.5, Valkyries 79.1. Model win probability: Valkyries 60%, Dream 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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