NationsSun 1:45 PM CTOpus Arena

Czechia at Croatia

CzechiaCroatia

Sun 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · SpreadStrong play

CZE +0.5

47%

At lock CZE 1.12–1.54 CRO · CRO by 0.4 goals vs CZE +0.5 · 47% is the confidence saved at lock

Lean

Players

J. Sláma · CZE
Defender
P. Sucic · CRO
Midfielder

Prop lean · I. Matanovic Over 4.5 shots · 47% · informational

+120

Czechia

0-0-5 · computer pick

Form LLLLL · 2 PF · 12 PA

1.12

Projected

Croatia

1-0-4

Form LLLLW · 5 PF · 16 PA

1.54

CZE 28%Draw 25%CRO 47%

At lock: projected CZE 1.12–1.54 CRO · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

CZE 1.12–1.54 CRO · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
CRO -0.2 off · CZE -0.6 off, shrunk 56%
Home field
+0.2 goals to CRO
Record
CRO 1-0-4 · CZE 0-0-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward CRO -180 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jiri Sláma
goals 1
Jiri Sláma
goalsleaders 1

Petar Sucic
goals 1
Petar Sucic
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CZE	CRO
Goal Difference	-13	-8
Total Goals	5	11
Assists	2	3
Goals Against	18	19

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

L. Majer Over 2.5 shots
Shots · CRO
-115
54%
L. Modric Over 1.5 shots
Shots · CRO
-110
52%
I. Smolcic Over 1.5 shots
Shots · CRO
-105
51%
D. Beljo Over 1.5 SOT
Shots on target · CRO
-105
51%
M. Kovacic Over 1.5 shots
Shots · CRO
+100
50%
R. Naderi Over 0.5 SOT
Shots on target · CZE
-110
50%
I. Smolcic Over 0.5 SOT
Shots on target · CRO
+100
49%
A. Budimir Over 4.5 shots
Shots · CRO
+110
49%
I. Matanovic Over 1.5 SOT
Shots on target · CRO
+105
49%
M. Pasalic Over 2.5 shots
Shots · CRO
+110
48%
I. Matanovic Over 4.5 shots
Shots · CRO
+120
47%
L. Modric Over 0.5 SOT
Shots on target · CRO
+110
47%

Czechia vs Croatia prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CZE +0.5, with a 47% model probability. The model projected Czechia 1.1, Croatia 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Croatia 47%, Czechia 28%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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