NationsSun 1:45 PM CTStade Atlantique

Türkiye at France

TV · FS2

TürkiyeFrance

Sun 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · SpreadStrong play

TUR +1.5

49%

At lock TUR 1.13–2.42 FRA · FRA by 1.3 goals vs TUR +1.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock

Lean

Players

A. Güler · TUR
Midfielder
M. Olise · FRA
Midfielder

Prop lean · M. Olise Over 4.5 shots · 48% · informational

+120

Türkiye

0-0-5 · computer pick

Form LLLLL · 3 PF · 13 PA

1.13

Projected

France

3-1-1

Form LWDWW · 8 PF · 5 PA

2.42

TUR 17%Draw 18%FRA 65%

At lock: projected TUR 1.13–2.42 FRA · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

TUR 1.13–2.42 FRA · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
FRA +0.2 off · TUR -0.5 off, shrunk 56%
Home field
+0.2 goals to FRA
Record
FRA 3-1-1 · TUR 0-0-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward FRA -600 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Arda Güler
goals 1
Arda Güler
goalsleaders 1

Michael Olise
goals 5
Michael Olise
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TUR	FRA
Goal Difference	-10	3
Total Goals	3	8
Assists	2	7
Goals Against	13	5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Gusto Over 1.5 shots
Shots · FRA
-105
52%
A. Rabiot Over 2.5 shots
Shots · FRA
+100
52%
F. Kadioglu Over 0.5 shots
Shots · TUR
-120
50%
M. Olise Over 4.5 shots
Shots · FRA
+120
48%
I. Fakili Over 1.5 shots
Shots · TUR
-115
48%
L. Da Cunha Over 2.5 shots
Shots · FRA
+120
47%
M. Demiral Over 0.5 shots
Shots · TUR
-105
47%
B. Barcola Over 3.5 shots
Shots · FRA
+125
47%
M. Gusto Over 0.5 SOT
Shots on target · FRA
+115
46%
B. Barcola Over 1.5 SOT
Shots on target · FRA
+120
46%
A. Diouf Over 3.5 shots
Shots · FRA
+130
46%
O. Aydin Over 1.5 shots
Shots · TUR
-105
46%

Türkiye vs France prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TUR +1.5, with a 49% model probability. The model projected Türkiye 1.1, France 2.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: France 65%, Türkiye 17%, draw 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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