Republic of Ireland at Austria
FT
0–1
At lock: projected IRL 1.10–1.52 AUT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:49 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2911086231
- Winner: Austria (46%)
- Spread: IRL +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
IRL 1.10–1.52 AUT · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseAUT +0.4 off · IRL -0.1 off, shrunk 56%
- Home field+0.2 goals to AUT
- RecordAUT 4-2-0 · IRL 1-2-3
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IRL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AUT | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 78'
Goal! Austria 1, Republic of Ireland 0. Sasa Kalajdzic (Austria) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal following a corner.
Game leaders
- Troy Parrotttotalshots 5
- Jayson MolumbyPass 50
- Liam Scalesdefensiveinterventions 11
- Caoimhín KelleherSV 7
- Michael Gregoritschtotalshots 6
- Philipp LienhartPass 56
- Nicolas Seiwalddefensiveinterventions 13
- Alexander SchlagerSV 7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IRL | AUT | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 12 | 7 |
| Saves | 7 | 7 |
| Possession | 44.9 | 55.1 |
| SHOTS | 17 | 21 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 279 | 392 |
| Passes | 372 | 476 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 8 | 6 |
| Crosses | 29 | 19 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 67 | 44 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 24 | 12 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 11 |
| Tackles | 11 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 23 | 35 |
| Clearances | 23 | 35 |
At lock IRL 1.10–1.52 AUT · AUT by 0.4 goals vs IRL +0.5 · 47% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Parrott · IRL
ForwardJ. Molumby · IRL
MidfielderL. Scales · IRL
DefenderC. Kelleher · IRL
GoalkeeperM. Gregoritsch · AUT
ForwardP. Lienhart · AUT
Defender
Prop lean · S. Kalajdzic Over 3.5 shots · 46% · informational
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rep Ireland vs Austria pick result · Nov 14, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IRL +0.5, with a 47% model probability — it lost.
More: Nations picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day