Poland at Romania
FT
1–2
At lock: projected POL 1.46–1.18 ROU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:49 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2676052470
- Winner: Poland (43%)
- Spread: ROU +0.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
POL 1.46–1.18 ROU · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseROU -0.2 off · POL +0.1 off, shrunk 56%
- Home field+0.2 goals to ROU
- RecordROU 2-4 · POL 1-1-4
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| POL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ROU | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 68'
Goal! Romania 1, Poland 0. Alexandru Cicâldau (Romania) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL2H 72'
Goal! Romania 2, Poland 0. Dennis Man (Romania) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Daniel Bîrligea following a fast break.
- GOAL2H 82'
Goal! Romania 2, Poland 1. Marcel Regula (Poland) header from very close range to the top left corner following a set piece situation.
Game leaders
- Matty Cashtotalshots 3
- Jakub KiwiorPass 61
- Kacper Potulskidefensiveinterventions 14
- Bartlomiej DragowskiSV 2
- Tudor Balutatotalshots 2
- Tudor BalutaPass 39
- Radu Dragusindefensiveinterventions 15
- Otto HindrichSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| POL | ROU | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 16 | 21 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 5 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 7 | 4 |
| Saves | 2 | 2 |
| Possession | 55.7 | 44.3 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 326 | 253 |
| Passes | 404 | 338 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 9 | 1 |
| Crosses | 35 | 9 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 49 | 57 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 21 | 18 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 5 |
| Tackles | 16 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 8 |
| Effective Clearances | 26 | 45 |
| Clearances | 26 | 45 |
At lock POL 1.46–1.18 ROU · POL by 0.3 goals vs ROU +0.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Cash · POL
DefenderJ. Kiwior · POL
DefenderK. Potulski · POL
DefenderB. Dragowski · POL
GoalkeeperT. Baluta · ROU
MidfielderR. Dragusin · ROU
Defender
Prop lean · R. Lewandowski Over 4.5 shots · 46% · informational
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Poland vs Romania pick result · Nov 14, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ROU +0.5, with a 50% model probability — it won.
More: Nations picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day