NationsFinalEstádio Municipal de Braga

Denmark at Portugal

FT · FS2

4–1

DenmarkPortugal

Final

Denmark

4-2 · W1

Form WWLWL · 15 PF · 9 PA

Final

Portugal

4-2 · L1

Form LWWWW · 11 PF · 12 PA

DEN 30%Draw 23%POR 47%

At lock: projected DEN 1.38–1.80 POR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:49 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2860606279

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

DEN 1 – POR 2

Final

DEN 4 – POR 1

Winner: Portugal (67%)
Spread: DEN +1.5 covers (58%)
Total: Under 3.5 (62%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

DEN 1.38–1.80 POR · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
POR +0.4 off · DEN +0.5 off, shrunk 56%
Home field
+0.2 goals to POR
Record
POR 4-2 · DEN 4-2

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
DEN	1	3	4
POR	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 43'
Goal! Portugal 0, Denmark 1. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (Denmark) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the high centre of the goal.
GOAL2H 49'
Goal! Portugal 0, Denmark 2. Rasmus Højlund (Denmark) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Mikkel Damsgaard.
GOAL2H 57'
Goal! Portugal 0, Denmark 3. Rasmus Højlund (Denmark) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.
GOAL2H 75'
Goal! Portugal 0, Denmark 4. Joachim Andersen (Denmark) header from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Mathias Jensen with a cross following a set piece situation.
GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Portugal 1, Denmark 4. Bernardo Silva (Portugal) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.

Game leaders

Rasmus Højlund
totalshots 5
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pass 59
Oliver Provstgaard
defensiveinterventions 14
Mads Hermansen
SV 7

Francisco Trincão
totalshots 3
Rúben Dias
Pass 59
Renato Veiga
defensiveinterventions 12
Diogo Costa
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DEN	POR
Fouls	4	19
Yellow Cards	0	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	5
Corner Kicks	7	6
Saves	7	1
Possession	48.5	51.5
SHOTS	17	15
ON GOAL	6	8
On Target %	0.4	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	1	0
Accurate Passes	366	397
Passes	446	473
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	3	3
Crosses	13	16
Cross %	0.2	0.2
Long Balls	57	36
Accurate Long Balls	25	16
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	9	3
Effective Tackles	7	4
Tackles	12	8
Tackle %	0.6	0.5
Interceptions	9	6
Effective Clearances	22	23
Clearances	22	23

Computer pick · SpreadStrong play

DEN +0.5

46%

At lock DEN 1.38–1.80 POR · POR by 0.4 goals vs DEN +0.5 · 46% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

R. Højlund · DEN
Forward
P. Højbjerg · DEN
Midfielder
O. Provstgaard · DEN
Defender
M. Hermansen · DEN
Goalkeeper
F. Trincão · POR
Forward
R. Dias · POR
Defender

Prop lean · B. Fernandes Over 3.5 shots · 46% · informational

+130Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Denmark vs Portugal pick result · Nov 14, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DEN +0.5, with a 46% model probability — it won.

More: Nations picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day