Wales at Norway
FT · FS2
1–3
At lock: projected WAL 1.01–2.31 NOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 1:37 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2894161517
- Winner: Norway (67%)
- Spread: WAL +1.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WAL 1.01–2.31 NOR · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseNOR +0.2 off · WAL -0.5 off, shrunk 56%
- Home field+0.2 goals to NOR
- RecordNOR 3-3 · WAL 1-5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NOR | 0 | 3 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 59'
Goal! Norway 1, Wales 0. Antonio Nusa (Norway) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner following a corner.
- GOAL2H 68'
Goal! Norway 2, Wales 0. Andreas Schjelderup (Norway) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Erling Haaland.
- GOAL2H 79'
Goal! Norway 2, Wales 1. David Brooks (Wales) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Harry Wilson.
- GOAL2H 88'
Goal! Norway 3, Wales 1. Erling Haaland (Norway) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
- Daniel Jamestotalshots 3
- Ethan AmpaduPass 73
- Joe Rodondefensiveinterventions 12
- Karl DarlowSV 2
- Antonio Nusatotalshots 4
- Kristoffer AjerPass 84
- Torbjørn Heggemdefensiveinterventions 10
- Egil SelvikSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WAL | NOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 8 |
| Saves | 2 | 4 |
| Possession | 45 | 55 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 426 | 534 |
| Passes | 504 | 606 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 4 |
| Crosses | 7 | 18 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 41 | 39 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 20 | 16 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 6 |
| Tackles | 11 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 12 |
| Effective Clearances | 25 | 12 |
| Clearances | 25 | 12 |
At lock WAL 1.01–2.31 NOR · NOR by 1.3 goals vs WAL +1.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. James · WAL
ForwardE. Ampadu · WAL
MidfielderJ. Rodon · WAL
DefenderK. Darlow · WAL
GoalkeeperA. Nusa · NOR
MidfielderK. Ajer · NOR
Defender
Prop lean · D. Ward Over 4.5 saves · 54% · informational
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wales vs Norway pick result · Nov 14, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WAL +1.5, with a 49% model probability — it lost.
More: Nations picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day