EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTRed Bull Arena Salzburg

Ararat-Armenia at RB Salzburg

TV · Paramount+

Ararat-ArmeniaRB Salzburg

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 3.5

-125 at lock52%

Model projects ARA 1.00 – 2.82 SLZ · below the strong-play bar (edge -3.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

B. Wilson · ARA
Defender
H. Tabakovic · SLZ
Forward

Projected prop · Bruno Wilson (ARA) 0.50 goals · 0.50 goals/game this season, × 1.00 for the projected ARA score

Line not posted yet

Ararat-Armenia

0-0-4

Form LLLLW · 4 PF · 14 PA

1.00

Projected

RB Salzburg

1-1-2 · computer pick

Form DLWWD · 3 PF · 8 PA

2.82

ARA 12%Draw 15%SLZ 74%

At lock: projected ARA 1.00–2.82 SLZ · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SLZ win

82%

91% (no-vig)

Total

3.83

3.5

Gap: -9 pts of win %, +0.33 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

ARA 1.00–2.82 SLZ · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): SLZ att +0.31 / def +0.11 · ARA att -0.12 / def -0.26 · model SLZ 2.8–1.0 ARA
Home field
+0.3 goals to SLZ
Record
SLZ 1-1-2 · ARA 0-0-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Bruno Wilson
goals 2
Bruno Wilson
goalsleaders 2

Haris Tabakovic
goals 1
Haris Tabakovic
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARA	SLZ
Goal Difference	-10	-5
Total Goals	4	3
Assists	4	2
Goals Against	14	8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Ararat-Armenia vs RB Salzburg prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Ararat-Armenia 1.0, RB Salzburg 2.8. Model win probability: RB Salzburg 74%, Ararat-Armenia 12%, draw 15%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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