EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTBalaidos

AFC Bournemouth at Celta Vigo

TV · Paramount+

BournemouthCelta Vigo

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-120 at lock50%

Model projects BOU 1.92 – 0.71 CEL · below the strong-play bar (edge -4.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Rayan · BOU
Forward
J. Rodríguez · CEL
Defender

Projected prop · Rayan (BOU) 0.60 goals · 0.75 goals/game this season, × 0.80 for the projected BOU score

Line not posted yet

AFC Bournemouth

4-0-0 · computer pick

Form DWWWW · 11 PF · 2 PA

1.92

Projected

Celta Vigo

1-0-3

Form WDLLD · 4 PF · 6 PA

0.71

BOU 66%Draw 21%CEL 13%

At lock: projected BOU 1.92–0.71 CEL · most likely 1–0

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CEL win

24%

35% (no-vig)

Total

2.63

2.5

Gap: -11 pts of win %, +0.13 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

BOU 1.92–0.71 CEL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): CEL att +0.03 / def +0.39 · BOU att +0.80 / def +0.83 · model CEL 0.7–1.9 BOU
Home field
+0.3 goals to CEL
Record
CEL 1-0-3 · BOU 4-0-0

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Rayan
goals 3
Rayan
goalsleaders 3

Javi Rodríguez
goals 2
Javi Rodríguez
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BOU	CEL
Goal Difference	9	-2
Total Goals	11	4
Assists	5	3
Goals Against	2	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bournemouth vs Celta Vigo prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Bournemouth 1.9, Celta Vigo 0.7. Model win probability: Celta Vigo 13%, Bournemouth 66%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day