EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTPreZero Arena

SK Sturm Graz at TSG Hoffenheim

TV · Paramount+

Sturm GrazHoffenheim

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 3.5

-125 at lock53%

Model projects STG 1.09 – 1.92 TSG · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

O. Diakité · STG
Forward
A. Kramaric · TSG
Forward

Projected prop · Oumar Diakité (STG) 0.90 goals · 0.75 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected STG score

Line not posted yet

SK Sturm Graz

1-1-2

Form DLDDW · 3 PF · 6 PA

1.09

Projected

TSG Hoffenheim

1-1-2 · computer pick

Form WDLLW · 6 PF · 6 PA

1.92

STG 21%Draw 22%TSG 57%

At lock: projected STG 1.09–1.92 TSG · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

TSG win

68%

84% (no-vig)

Total

3.01

3.5

Gap: -16 pts of win %, -0.49 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

STG 1.09–1.92 TSG · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): TSG att +0.31 / def +0.14 · STG att -0.01 / def +0.12 · model TSG 1.9–1.1 STG
Home field
+0.3 goals to TSG
Record
TSG 1-1-2 · STG 1-1-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Oumar Diakité
goals 3
Oumar Diakité
goalsleaders 3

Andrej Kramaric
goals 1
Andrej Kramaric
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STG	TSG
Goal Difference	-3	0
Total Goals	3	6
Assists	2	5
Goals Against	6	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sturm Graz vs Hoffenheim prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Sturm Graz 1.1, Hoffenheim 1.9. Model win probability: Hoffenheim 57%, Sturm Graz 21%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day