EuropaThu 11:45 AM CTStade Vélodrome

Levski Sofia at Marseille

TV · Paramount+

Levski SofiaMarseille

Thu 11:45 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 2.5

+110 at lock46%

Model projects LEV 0.85 – 1.50 OLM · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Reinaldo · LEV
Forward
A. Gouiri · OLM
Forward

Projected prop · Reinaldo (LEV) 0.43 goals · 0.50 goals/game this season, × 0.85 for the projected LEV score

Line not posted yet

Levski Sofia

2-1-1

Form WWDLL · 4 PF · 3 PA

0.85

Projected

Marseille

1-0-3 · computer pick

Form WWWWL · 2 PF · 6 PA

1.50

LEV 21%Draw 26%OLM 52%

At lock: projected LEV 0.85–1.50 OLM · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

OLM win

66%

80% (no-vig)

Total

2.36

2.5

Gap: -15 pts of win %, -0.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

LEV 0.85–1.50 OLM · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): OLM att +0.31 / def +0.20 · LEV att -0.20 / def +0.37 · model OLM 1.5–0.9 LEV
Home field
+0.3 goals to OLM
Record
OLM 1-0-3 · LEV 2-1-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Reinaldo
goals 2
Reinaldo
goalsleaders 2

Amine Gouiri
goals 1
Amine Gouiri
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LEV	OLM
Goal Difference	1	-4
Total Goals	4	2
Assists	4	2
Goals Against	3	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Levski Sofia vs Marseille prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Levski Sofia 0.8, Marseille 1.5. Model win probability: Marseille 52%, Levski Sofia 21%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day