EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTGoffertstadion

Stade Rennais at NEC Nijmegen

TV · Paramount+

RennesNEC

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 3.5

+125 at lock43%

Model projects REN 1.97 – 1.78 NEC · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

M. Nagida · REN
Defender
B. Linssen · NEC
Forward

Projected prop · Bryan Linssen (NEC) 0.89 goals · 1.00 goals/game this season, × 0.89 for the projected NEC score

Line not posted yet

Stade Rennais

1-3-0 · computer pick

Form LDLWD · 4 PF · 3 PA

1.97

Projected

NEC Nijmegen

2-1-1

Form WWLDW · 8 PF · 9 PA

1.78

REN 43%Draw 21%NEC 36%

At lock: projected REN 1.97–1.78 NEC · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NEC win

46%

44% (no-vig)

Total

3.76

3.5

Gap: +3 pts of win %, +0.26 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

REN 1.97–1.78 NEC · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): NEC att +0.16 / def -0.06 · REN att +0.38 / def +0.05 · model NEC 1.8–2.0 REN
Home field
+0.3 goals to NEC
Record
NEC 2-1-1 · REN 1-3-0

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mahamadou Nagida
goals 1
Mahamadou Nagida
goalsleaders 1

Bryan Linssen
goals 4
Bryan Linssen
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	REN	NEC
Goal Difference	1	-1
Total Goals	4	8
Assists	1	5
Goals Against	3	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rennes vs NEC prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Rennes 2.0, NEC 1.8. Model win probability: NEC 36%, Rennes 43%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day