EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTSelhurst Park

Real Sociedad at Crystal Palace

TV · Paramount+

Real SociedadC Palace

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-180 at lock61%

Model projects RSO 1.42 – 1.89 CRY · below the strong-play bar (edge -3.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

S. Gómez · RSO
Forward
Y. Pino · CRY
Midfielder

Projected prop · Yéremy Pino (CRY) 0.63 goals · 0.75 goals/game this season, × 0.84 for the projected CRY score

Line not posted yet

Real Sociedad

1-2-1

Form WDLWW · 9 PF · 4 PA

1.42

Projected

Crystal Palace

1-2-1 · computer pick

Form DDLWL · 9 PF · 6 PA

1.89

RSO 29%Draw 22%CRY 48%

At lock: projected RSO 1.42–1.89 CRY · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CRY win

60%

61% (no-vig)

Total

3.31

2.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.81 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

RSO 1.42–1.89 CRY · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): CRY att +0.36 / def +0.41 · RSO att +0.51 / def +0.19 · model CRY 1.9–1.4 RSO
Home field
+0.3 goals to CRY
Record
CRY 1-2-1 · RSO 1-2-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sergio Gómez
goals 3
Sergio Gómez
goalsleaders 3

Yéremy Pino
goals 3
Yéremy Pino
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RSO	CRY
Goal Difference	5	3
Total Goals	9	9
Assists	7	4
Goals Against	4	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Real Sociedad vs C Palace prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Real Sociedad 1.4, C Palace 1.9. Model win probability: C Palace 48%, Real Sociedad 29%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day