EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTAllianz Stadium

Omonia Nicosia at Juventus

TV · Paramount+

OmoniaJuventus

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 3.5

-130 at lock55%

Model projects OMON 1.05 – 1.74 JUV · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

J. Montnor · OMON
Forward
N. Woltemade · JUV
Forward

Projected prop · Nick Woltemade (JUV) 0.60 goals · 0.75 goals/game this season, × 0.80 for the projected JUV score

Line not posted yet

Omonia Nicosia

2-0-2

Form LLWWW · 6 PF · 7 PA

1.05

Projected

Juventus

3-1-0 · computer pick

Form DWWLW · 11 PF · 4 PA

1.74

OMON 23%Draw 24%JUV 53%

At lock: projected OMON 1.05–1.74 JUV · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

JUV win

66%

90% (no-vig)

Total

2.79

3.5

Gap: -25 pts of win %, -0.71 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

OMON 1.05–1.74 JUV · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): JUV att +0.42 / def +0.42 · OMON att +0.23 / def +0.33 · model JUV 1.7–1.0 OMON
Home field
+0.3 goals to JUV
Record
JUV 3-1-0 · OMON 2-0-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jaden Montnor
goals 1
Jaden Montnor
goalsleaders 1

Nick Woltemade
goals 3
Nick Woltemade
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	OMON	JUV
Goal Difference	-1	7
Total Goals	6	11
Assists	5	8
Goals Against	7	4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Omonia vs Juventus prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Omonia 1.1, Juventus 1.7. Model win probability: Juventus 53%, Omonia 23%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day