EuropaThu 2:00 PM CTGroupama Stadium

Lillestrom at Lyon

TV · Paramount+

LillestromLyon

Thu 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 3.5

-125 at lock54%

Model projects LSK 0.68 – 2.19 LYON · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

T. Lehne Olsen · LSK
Forward
C. Tolisso · LYON
Midfielder

Projected prop · Corentin Tolisso (LYON) 0.60 goals · 0.50 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected LYON score

Line not posted yet

Lillestrom

0-1-3

Form WLWWL · 2 PF · 10 PA

0.68

Projected

Lyon

2-1-1 · computer pick

Form LDWLL · 6 PF · 7 PA

2.19

LSK 10%Draw 18%LYON 72%

At lock: projected LSK 0.68–2.19 LYON · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LYON win

81%

90% (no-vig)

Total

2.87

3.5

Gap: -9 pts of win %, -0.63 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.

The model

How this number was built

LSK 0.68–2.19 LYON · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): LYON att +0.23 / def +0.38 · LSK att -0.25 / def -0.09 · model LYON 2.2–0.7 LSK
Home field
+0.3 goals to LYON
Record
LYON 2-1-1 · LSK 0-1-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Thomas Lehne Olsen
goals 2
Thomas Lehne Olsen
goalsleaders 2

Corentin Tolisso
goals 2
Corentin Tolisso
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LSK	LYON
Goal Difference	-8	-1
Total Goals	2	6
Assists	2	4
Goals Against	10	7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lillestrom vs Lyon prediction · Nov 26, 2026

The model projects Lillestrom 0.7, Lyon 2.2. Model win probability: Lyon 72%, Lillestrom 10%, draw 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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