Champions LeagueWed 11:45 AM CTBaku Olympic Stadium

Barcelona at Sabah FK

TV · Paramount+

BarcelonaSabah

Wed 11:45 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 4.5

-150 at lock58%

Model projects BAR 3.50 – 2.37 SAB · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Raphinha · BAR
Forward
A. McCarthy · SAB
Defender

Projected prop · Raphinha (BAR) 1.00 goals · 1.00 goals/game this season, × 1.00 for the projected BAR score

Line not posted yet

Barcelona

3-0-1

Form WWWLL · 14 PF · 6 PA

3.50

Projected

Sabah FK

1-0-3

Form LLWLW · 4 PF · 10 PA

2.37

BAR 57%Draw 16%SAB 27%

At lock: projected BAR 3.50–2.37 SAB · most likely 3–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

The model

How this number was built

BAR 3.50–2.37 SAB · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
SAB -0.2 off · BAR +0.9 off, shrunk 40%
Home field
+0.3 goals to SAB
Record
SAB 1-0-3 · BAR 3-0-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Raphinha
goals 4
Raphinha
goalsleaders 4

Aden McCarthy
goals 1
Aden McCarthy
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BAR	SAB
Goal Difference	8	-6
Total Goals	14	4
Assists	10	4
Goals Against	6	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Barcelona vs Sabah prediction · Nov 25, 2026

The model projects Barcelona 3.5, Sabah 2.4. Model win probability: Sabah 27%, Barcelona 57%, draw 16%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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